What Do Course Adjustments Mean For Scores?

As we count down to the 11th annual Upstate Classic I’m getting worried about my scores.  They’ve dipped a bit lately and I’ve gone from shooting a somewhat consistent 52-54 to something a couple of shots higher.

Granted, that’s still a pretty awesome improvement over the 2-day disaster I tossed last year.

Still, I wonder if the changes there have cost me those strokes.  For example, the new hole #12 replaces an almost certain birdie on what was a temporary hole 13.  And now, as a lefty, I’m not guaranteed a bird on the new 14.  It takes a tight little anhyzer to skip a disc up the hill for a real drop in now.

Otis and I like to measure the holes around the Upstate in the same way ball golfers example particular holes after a big event.  That is, what is the average score?

For example : Hole #1 is probably about a 2.5.  That means I expect to birdie it about half the time and par it the rest.

The changes to 12 and 14 impact me thusly :

Temp #13 WAS about a 2.2.  New #12 is probably 2.9.

Old #14 WAS a 2.0.   New pin on 14 makes it closer to 2.8.

Combined those changes will cost me, on average 1.5 strokes or 3 strokes on a given day in the Upstate Classic.

I’m trying to factor that in.

Likewise, as a lefty, the new tee pad on 18 will change the average a bit too.  The old, underwater and by the woods, tee was probably a 3.5.  The new one, is closer to a 3.

Does that mean we can expect MOST scores this year to skew higher than last?

I’m not sure.

For example, I’m a better player than last year.  As least, I think I am.   So even losing 3 shots-per-day won’t cause me to shoot higher.  I think I’m probably at least that much improved even with the new course.

I’d say the same is true for the field itself.

For example, here’s a list of players in the “Intermediate” division :

It’s a pretty deep field as of this morning.

And here’s a look a the number of players from that list who were also in the SAME division last year :

Stuart Krall (2nd Place)

Jason Hamil (5th Place, shooting a remarkably consistent -2 four straight times)

Aaron Evans (8th Place)

Bill Meek (11th Place tie)

Brian Powell (11th Place tie)

Gordon Dill (Pathetic.  The top finisher in the Open Division beat this clown by 73 strokes!!!!!)

I assume that all of the players who are back for another year are, like me, better for the time spent.

Also, some of the players who are new to the division this year are very very good and have experience in other tournaments at Timmons like the Upstate Foothills Open this summer.

So I wonder where the scores will fall…this fall.

I also wonder if I can avoid embarrassment.